Knowing with confidence where a bushfire will be ahead of time is critical to the safe and effective deployment of our fire crews and the safety of our communities

Australia’s national science agency CSIRO and the NSW Rural Fire Service have announced the release of an advanced model for predicting the speed and behaviour of eucalypt forest fires, helping to save lives and property during bushfires.

The Vesta Mark 2 model, a mathematical description of how a fire responds to environmental conditions, will be rolled out nationally this summer and help fire control rooms across the country to predict and suppress bushfires as they spread across the landscape, and to warn the public.

“Critically, this model can accurately predict the speed that a fire front will advance across a landscape, which is essential to enable authorities to efficiently identify threats, issue bushfire warning messages, signal evacuations, and plan fire suppression actions," explained CSIRO bushfire behaviour researcher Dr Andrew Sullivan.

NSW RFS Deputy Commissioner Preparedness and Capability, Kyle Stewart, added: "knowing with confidence where a bushfire will be ahead of time is critical to the safe and effective deployment of our fire crews and the safety of our communities,”

Vesta Mk 2 has been incorporated into Spark, Australia’s newest wildfire operational simulator being developed by CSIRO and the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council, and Amicus, which is CSIRO’s bushfire knowledge support system to help support future bushfire fighting efforts.

Read full background articles here:

A guide to the use and operation Vesta Mk 2

An empirical-based model for predicting the forward spread rate of wildfires in eucalypt forests

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Photo: NSW RFS State Operations Centre within the NSW RFS Headquarters, Sydney Olympic Park, during the 2019/20 fire season. Image NSW RFS